The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is anticipated to transfer a record surplus exceeding ₹2.5 lakh crore to the central government for the fiscal year 2024–25 (FY25), according to economists and analysts. This projected dividend significantly surpasses last year’s payout of ₹2.1 lakh crore and the government’s budgeted estimate of ₹2.2 lakh crore for FY26 .
Key Drivers Behind the Expected Surplus
Several factors contribute to the anticipated increase in the RBI’s surplus:
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Foreign Exchange Operations: The RBI has engaged in substantial dollar sales, estimated at over $125 billion since September, to stabilize the rupee’s exchange rate. These transactions have resulted in notable gains due to the difference between the selling and purchase rates of the dollar .
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Liquidity Management: With the banking system experiencing liquidity deficits in FY25, the RBI extended funds to banks on an overnight basis, earning interest income from these operations .
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Interest on Foreign Assets: The central bank’s foreign currency assets have also generated interest income, contributing to the overall surplus .
Economic Implications
The anticipated surplus transfer is expected to have several positive effects on the economy:
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Fiscal Consolidation: The additional funds will provide the government with greater flexibility to manage its fiscal deficit, especially in light of reduced tax collections due to economic slowdown .
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Enhanced Liquidity: The surplus transfer will inject liquidity into the banking system, potentially lowering bond yields, particularly for shorter-tenure securities .
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Support for Capital Expenditure: The increased funds can bolster the government’s capital expenditure plans, aiding in economic growth initiatives .
Analyst Projections
While the government has budgeted for a ₹2.2 lakh crore dividend, some analysts project that the actual surplus transfer could range between ₹2.8 lakh crore and ₹3.5 lakh crore, depending on the final calculations of the RBI’s earnings .
The RBI is expected to announce the official surplus transfer figure by late May.
